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Boao Forum for Asia-Development of Emerging EconomiesAnnual Report 2018

  • 作者:
  • 丛书名:
  • 版次/印次:1/1
  • ISBN:9787566319050
  • 出版社:
  • 出版时间:2018年3月
  • 开本:215mm×278mm
  • 字数:192千字
定价¥180.00会员价¥162.00

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  • 介绍/前言
  • 目录

  Preface

  TheBoaoForumforAsia,anon-governmentalandnon-profitinternationalorganizationwithafixedconferencedateandafixeddomicile,hasbecomeanimportantandhigh-profileplatformfordialoguesonAsianandglobalissuesforgovernment,industrialandcommercialaswellasacademicleadersinAsiaandothercontinents.Itaimstopromoteeconomicexchanges,coordinationandcooperationamongeconomieswithinAsiaandbetweenAsiaandothercontinents.ToexpandtheexternalexchangechannelsoftheAsianeconomiesandestablishwidercross-regionallinks,theforumiscommittedtopushingdevelopmentof,andcooperationamong,theworld’semerging-marketeconomies.Theforumhasstartedtoorganizethecompilationoftheannualdevelopmentreportfortheemerging-marketeconomiessince2010.

  In2010,theforumforthefirsttimedefinedtheterm“E11”(11majoremerging-marketeconomies)initsannualdevelopmentreport.The2018reportcontinuestofocusonstudyoftheE11and,inparticular,analyzestheirnewdevelopmentsineconomicgrowth,employmentandincome,priceandmonetarypolicy,internationaltrade,internationaldirectinvestment,internationalcommodities,anddebtandfinancialmarkets.ItalsoanticipatestheeconomicsituationoftheE11in2018.

  Benefitingfromadrasticriseinexternaldemandandgenerallystabledomesticconsumptiondemand,theeconomicgrowthoftheemergingeconomiesobviouslyacceleratedandgenerallymaintainedanupwardmomentumin2017.TheE11sawaGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)growthofabout5.1%in2017,oranincreaseof0.5percentagepointsyear-on-year,which,1.4percentagepointshigherthantheworld’saverageeconomicgrowth,madetheE11continuouslytaketheleadamongtheemerging-marketanddevelopingeconomies.Atthelargestemergingeconomy,Chinakeptamiddle-higheconomicgrowthof6.9%in2017,contributingapproximatelyone-thirdtoglobaleconomicgrowthandcontinuouslyactingasthelargestcontributortoglobaleconomy.RussiaandBrazilpulledthemselvesoutofalingeringeconomicrecessionandtheireconomicgrowthturnedfromnegativetopositive.Over2017,thejobmarketsoftheemergingeconomieshavegenerallykeptstable,withtheirinflationpressureseasedtosomeextent,internationaltradevigorouslyreboundedandthefinancialmarketsgenerallystable,buttheirdebtlevelshavekeptsoaringandinternationaltradegrowthremainedfeeble.

  Atthesametime,theeconomiccooperationamongtheemergingeconomieshasachievedremarkableprogresses.Intermsofinternalcooperation,thedecliningproportionoftheE11’sinternaltradetoitstotalforeigntradehasbeencheckedandtheproportionin2017alreadyexceededthatof2015.MutualdirectinvestmentwithintheE11hasseensteadygrowth.Intermsofforeigncooperation,theE11’stradehaslongremainedrelativelyhighlydependentonthedevelopedeconomies,butduetogoodeconomicrecoveryoftheemerging-marketanddevelopingeconomies,theproportionofthedevelopedeconomiestotheE11’stradesawadeclinein2017.Inthecontextofanexacerbatedinward-lookingapproachoftheUSandotherdevelopedeconomies,theE11hasmadeslowprogressesintradeandinvestmenttalkswiththedevelopedeconomies.

  Currently,theeconomicgrowthoftheemergingeconomiesrepresentedbytheE11takesonagoodmomentum.However,theinfluencesofthosefactorsthataffecttheirlaborproductivity,technologicalprogress,youthunemployment,balancedincomedistribution,economicglobalizationandregionalintegration,andpublicandprivatedebt,aswellasthegrowingfinancialbubblesandthespillovereffectbroughtaboutbyUSPresidentDonaldTrump’staxreformoftheireconomicgrowthstillcannotbeignored.Inthemeantime,whethertheirexternaldemandcanmaintaincontinuousgrowthandthedynamismoftheirinvestmentgrowthcanbere-forgedremainsyettobeseen.

  Lookingintotheyearof2018,theemergingeconomiesareexpectedtocontinuouslymaintainagoodgrowthmomentum,buttheystillneedtotakeprecautionarymeasuresagainstvariousrisksandchallenges,anddigoutanendogenousgrowthpowertolayasolidfoundationforlong-termandsteadyeconomicgrowth.