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Boao Forum for Asia-Progress of Asian Economic Integration Annual Report 2018

  • 作者:
  • 丛书名:
  • 版次/印次:1/1
  • ISBN:9787566319067
  • 出版社:
  • 出版时间:2018年3月
  • 开本:215mm×278mm
  • 字数:173千字
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  • 介绍/前言
  • 目录

  FOREWORD

  Aftertheoutbreakoftheglobalfinancialcrisisinthedevelopedcountriesin2008,Asiahasbeenundergoingaseriesofstructuralchangesinitstrade,investmentandfinanceandthesechangesarehavingprofoundimpactontheprogressofAsia’seconomicintegration.

  WeneedacautiousattitudetopredictthefutureprogressofAsia’seconomicintegrationeventhoughthereweresomegoodsignsforAsia’stradeperformancein2017.Theglobalizationbasedontheglobalvaluechaindevelopment,whichhasbeenthemostimportantdriverofAsia’seconomicintegration,isfacingunprecedentedchallengesfromtwosides.Theanti-globalizationsentimentthatoriginatedfromtheWestisstillspreadingovertheworld.Besidesthis,themarketforcesseemtobeatworktoreshapetheglobalvaluechain—thebasisoftheglobalization.Thenewinnovationsinprecisemachines,robots,3-Dtechnologiesandlowerresourcecostsmaybringsomemanufacturingcapacitiesbacktothedevelopedcountries.Inaddition,thereisalsoatendencyformultinationalcompaniestoshortentheglobalsupplychainsastheyinvolvehighrisksofinterruptions.Finally,anencouragingchangeinAsia’sglobalvaluechainisthatmostoftheAsianeconomiesincludingChina,India,Vietnam,IndonesiaandThailandhavesignificantlyincreasedthecapacitytosubstituteforimportsofintermediategoods,whichobviouslywouldcontributetothereductioninglobaltrade.Thechangeintheglobalvaluechainmaygeographicallyleadtorelocationsofinvestmentintheworldandreducethescaleofglobaltrade.ThisisthebackgroundagainstwhichAsia’seconomicintegrationisproceedingtoday.TheAsianmembersneednewpoliciestofacethesechallengescomingbothfromideologicalperspectiveandfromthemarketside.

  Sincetheglobalfinancialcrisis,manyofAsia’svulnerabilitiesemerged.Thenarrownessoftheinternalmarketsincreasinglybecomesabarriertotheexpansionoftheglobalvaluechain.TraditionalmodelofAsia’sglobalvaluechainis:ChinasourcedintermediatepartsandcomponentsfromtheAsianpartnersincludingJapan,KoreaandASEANandhadtheseP&CsassembledinChinabeforethefinalgoodswereexportedtotheUSandEU.WithdeterioratingeconomicgrowthandgrowingtradedeficitsintheUSandsomeEUmembers,thismodelisfacedwithmoredifficulties.ToexpandAsia’sinternalmarketsisverycrucialtosustainthefurthergrowthoftheglobalvaluechainandprovidenewmomentumtotheglobaltradegrowth.Formanyyears,majorAsianeconomieshaveexcesssavings.Buttheseexcesssavingshavenotbeeneffectivelymobilizedlocallyduetotheunderdevelopedfinancialmarkets.Insteadofbeingintermediatedinthelocalfinancialmarkets,theyweremainlyflowingtothedevelopedcountries.AsnotedinthisReport,theUnitedStatesandEUabsorbed96percentoftheworldtotalportfolioinvestmentin2016.ThispatternofcapitalflowswouldexposeAsianeconomiestohighrisksofcapitalflightandhighercostoffinancing.Theproblemhasbecomemoreprominentwithvolatileinternalandexternalenvironmentsinrecentyears.FirmsandindividualsintheAsianeconomieshaveusedthefinancialmarketsasavehiclefor“flighttosafety”.Withitsrapideconomicgrowth,Asiashouldhavestrongdemandforcapitalandthisrequiresanefficientlyintegratedfinancialmarkets.Somestudieshaveshownthatthelocaldemandwasveryhigh,particularlyfortheinfrastructureandtheconservativeestimatesputthedemandoverUSD8.3trillionbefore2020(Bhattacharyay2010).TheAsianeconomiesshouldsparenoeffortstotakeadvantageoftheopportunitytomovecollectivelytowardcreatingaworld-classintegratedlocalfinancialmarketthroughoutdeterminedreforms.However,whatisworryingusisthatvariousindicatorssuchaslocalsaving-investmentcorrelations,stockmarketcorrelationsandcapitalaccountcontrolssuggestthatAsiaisexperiencingfallbacksinfinancialintegrationrecently.Inadditiontothese,thereisalsoaproblemofwidediscrepancybetweenfinancialopennessmeasuredrestrictiverulesandtheactualflows.Forexample,byregulations,ASEANislessopenthanJapanandKorea.Butintermsofactualflows,ASEANappearedtomoreopenthanthesetwocountries.

  Lookingahead,Asianeedstotackleanumberofchallengesinitswayforward.First,itshouldworkoutclearpoliciestodealwiththestructuralchangesofglobalvaluechainandfindnewandinnovativewaystogrow(asnotedinthethemeoftheforthcomingBoaoforAsiaAnnualmeetingin2018).Second,itshouldworkcollectivelytodevelopacommonapproachtoexternalpressuresbothinmacroeconomicsideandintradetoreversethetendencyof“flighttosafety”andresisttheprotectionistpressuresfromtheWesterndevelopedcountries.Third,itshouldsparenoeffortstodeepenthefinancialreformsofindividualeconomiesinacoordinatedmannersoastoreleasetheregion’spotentialsofgrowth.Whiletheultimategoalistocreateanefficientlyintegratedlocalfinancialmarket,itmayfocus,butnotlimited,onseveralshort-termgoalssuchaseliminatingtheexcesssavingstoboosttheregion’sdemand,makingcollectivesolutiontoeachindividualeconomy’spotentialfinancialrisks,coordinatingtheprogressofcapitalaccountreformsandpromotinglocalentrepreneurshiptoboostinvestment.Finally,itshouldactivelyengageinconflictmanagement.Securityissuessuchasnuclearweapons,territorialdisputesandfearofrisingpowersarebeginningtohaveimpactonAsia’seconomicdevelopmentandcooperation.Asiaeconomiesshouldfirstestablishastrongsenseofcommunityanddevelopskillsandguidelinestomanagethepotentialconflicts.Economiesshouldabandonthe“one-sided-win”mentalitiesanddeepentheunderstandingofandlisteningpatientlytotheconcernsoftheothersidethroughactivedialoguesandcommunications.Italsorequireseconomiestostandupagainstusingwarasmeanstoresolveconflicts.PeaceisthefundamentalbasisofAsia’sgreaterprosperityandtoensurepeace,theAsianeconomiesshouldusetheregion’seconomicintegrationasastabilizerandtheAsianleadersshouldworktogethertosteertheregioninthisdirection.