The Boao Forum for Asia, a non-governmental and non-profit international organization with a fixed conference date and a fixed domicile, has become an important and high-profile platform for dialogues on Asian and global issues for government, industrial and commercial as well as academic leaders in Asia and other continents. It aims to promote economic exchanges, coordination and cooperation among countries within Asia and between Asia and other continents. To expand the external exchange channels of the Asian economies and establish wider cross-regional links, the forum is committed to pushing development of, and cooperation among the world’s emerging-market countries. The forum has started to organize the compilation of the annual development report for the emerging-market economies since 2010.
In 2010, the forum for the first time defined the term “E11” (11 major emerging-market economies) in its annual development report. The 2019 report continues to focus on study of the E11 and, in particular, analyzes their new developments in economic growth, employment and income, price and monetary policy, international trade, international direct investment, international commodities, and debt and financial markets. It also anticipates the economic situations of the E11 in 2019.
Against the backdrop of global economic slowdown, the emerging economies saw a little slower economic growth in 2018. In the year, the E11 registered a GDP growth rate of about 5.1%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of 2017, but still maintained a relatively high growth rate compared with other emerging-market and developing economies, and its growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than that of the world economy. As the largest emerging economy, China saw a slower economic growth pace in 2018 than 2017, but its economic growth still exceeded its set target of 6.6%, making China a major contributor to global growth. India maintained a higher growth rate over 2017 in 2018, while Argentina suffered an economic recession. Over 2018, the employment situations in the emerging economies have improved, incomes has shown signs of improvement, trade growth has gained momentum, and foreign direct investment has grown against adverse conditions. However, their inflationary pressures have also increased and debt levels generally risen, accompanied by intensified financial market volatility.
At the same time, economic cooperation among the emerging economies themselves has also shown a positive trend. From an internal cooperation perspective, the proportion of internal trade in the E11’s total foreign trade continued to rise in 2018, and the direct investment cooperation among them also continuously deepened. In terms of external cooperation, the E11’s economic and trade ties with the developed economies weakened, while the share of trade with the emerging-market and developing economies hit a record high. In addition, in the context of escalating unilateral and protectionist policies from the United States and other major developed economies, the E11’s trade and investment activities with the developed economies are facing increasing obstacles.
Looking ahead to 2019, the E11’s economic growth and economic and trade cooperation are still expected to be under the influences of US and European monetary policy trends, the policies and actions of global trade protectionism, debt risks, the trend of commodity prices, the reform process of global economic governance mechanism as well as other factors such as the geopolitical risks management ability of major powers. Hence, the E11’s economic growth still face sizeable downward pressures, and preventing risks, promoting growth and deepening cooperation remain the main objectives and tasks of their macroeconomic policies in the future.