前言

   1998年3月民建中央向九届政协会议提出《关于借鉴国外经验，尽快发展我国风险投资事业的提案》，被列
为“一号提案”。同年12月原国家计划发展委员会向国务院提出“尽早研究设立创业板块股票市场”。由此，
风险投资受到科技界、企业界和金融界的普遍关注，一批新的风险投资机构相继成立，1998-1999年形成了
“风险投资热”。以IT、生物医药、新材料为代表的一大批优秀的创业企业和高成长性企业获得风险投资并
蓬勃发展起来。

作为关系国计民生的特殊产业，医药产业一直是风险投资重要领域，但是针对性深入研究却没有得到应有重
视，而细化到医药风险投资分阶段系列而深入的研究及后续的风险管理更是空白。本书以我国医药风险投资
项目评价和风险管理作为研究对象，在医药风险企业发展的不同时期（种子期、成长期、成熟期）定性研究
的基础上，分别运用神经网络模型及粗糙集信息熵建立医药高科技风险投资多指标综合评价神经网络方法及
投资优序评价模型予以定量研究，并运用于实际医药风险投资中。在构建了医药风险投资定性和定量的方法
后，针对投资决策过程中寻租性风险，应用博弈论分析方法，研究投资决策中一次性寻租行为和重复性寻租
行为，建立相应的分析模型，指出投资决策中寻租性风险存在的必然性及巨大危害，并针对性地提出了适合
实际操作的对策建议。之后，从行为学角度审视风险投资行为理性差异，并在此基础上引入群体决策（GASS）
方法，通过构建科学、动态的医药风险投资项目群体决策研讨系统，把专家体系、数据和信息系统以及计算
机体系有机结合起来，从而尽可能避免在风险投资决策中人行为的非理性。最后，从组织机制、利益机制和
程序机制这三个方面建立了机制→流程→风险管理实务三个层次的风险管理框架。由此，从定性和定量的角
度构建了一套较为系统和完善的我国医药风险投资项目评价和风险管理方法。该方法对于IT、新材料、新能
源、环保等领域的风险投资也有借鉴意义。

2008年3月21日中国证监会向社会公开征求对《首次公开发行股票并在创业板上市管理办法》的意见。证监会
表示，创业板市场的推出，有助于缓解中小企业，尤其是中小高科技企业融资难的问题，有利于完善创业资
本退出机制、促进创业投资的发展和企业创新机制的形成。它的建立，对创新型国家的构建、经济结构的调整
、资本市场功能的完善和促进主板市场健康稳定的发展都具有积极而深远的影响。

我们可以预见随着我国创业板的开设和不断发展，一个精彩纷呈、活力迸发的风险投资崭新历史时期即将开始。

由于作者水平有限，错漏之处，敬请同仁斧正！

                                                                                                             作者
                                                                                                        2009年元月

ABSTRACT

As count for much the national economy and the peoples livelihood, Pharmaceutical industry
is the important realm for venture capital investment, but academia did not attach importance
to the pertinence research Experimental research is a representative research method on the
criteria venture capitalists use in evaluation potential investments As criticism point out
that the relevant research neglected the difference of industry and the difference between
 different stages in enterprise development Studies by Gompers (1995) who interviewed 795 VC
companies find that  the average stage of VC is 2689The state of neglect the difference of
 industry and the difference between different stages in enterprise development is deadliness

The main work and conclusion of this paper are as follows:

1) At the beginning, this paper reviews and synthesis the main venture capital investment
 development process, standpoint, theories, method, model of risk management, etc Based on
 former research, using the data of questionnaire survey from 397 correlative people and SPSS11
0, this paper set up evaluation model for pharmaceutical venture capital investment at Seed
 stage, Development stage and Profitable stage At each end of these three chapters，give two
 practicality case proved that this evaluation system is useful and meaningful

Substudy founds that R&D risk is the most important risk and profitability& asset liquidity
is the most important risk in second risk level in seedstage venture capital investment
Market risk is the most important risk and the advanced &practicality of R&D is the most
important risk in second risk level in development stage venture capital investmentMarket
risk is the most important risk and market competition structure and the company position is
the most important risk in second risk level in profitable stage venture capital investment

2) With an analysis of the risk of investing in hightech in pharmaceutical VC projects, this
 paper proposes a multi target synthetic evaluation method based on BP neural network
 The method can simulate the expert in evaluating the investing risk, thus avoiding the
subjective mistakes in the evaluation process The simulation test indicates that results
achieved by this method are satisfactory In some cases, because of less of training date,
 we can not use BP neural network method On this basis, using the method of neural network
 Skeletonization, define node sensitivity  with parameter adjustment the firstorder filter
 to improve the sensitivity of the calculation algorithm be using MATLAB program The result
 of running the program is deletion of two input nodes (factors), and six hidden nodes
The more important meaning is achieving a method of nonlinear systems based on neural network
structure identification It has certain value in socioeconomic and nonlinear systems
engineering identification

According to actual investment operation, this paper leads the information entropy of rough set
 theory into investment evaluation model Verified by a actual investment case, the proposed
approach try to research the application of rough set theory in investment field

3) Reviews the games of investment decision between personal reasonableness and collective
reasonableness The quantitative analysis models are established，and the impact of the
management system on the equilibrium action of the players is analyzed The result shows that
the action of rentseeking in investment is inevitable in the current enterprise management
system Furthermore，some methods for reducing the possibility of the action are given

4)Introduce Group Argument Support Systems （GASS）,construct investment risk and decision
making processes through expert system framework, integrate the targets system, the expert
system and machine system, and gives an example Found that the parties can be effectively
integrated project evaluation, investment risk evaluation more scientific and effective

5） Establish (mechanisms → process → risk management practices) three levels of risk
 Management system thought organizational mechanisms, interest mechanism and procedures
 mechanisms

KEY WORD：Venture capital investment；Pharmaceutical industry；BP neural network model；
Information entropy；Game theory analysis；Risk management

TYPE OF DISSERTATION：Applied Fundamental